Mark’s
Camarillo Market Analysis
3rd
Quarter 2014 - (July, August, September)
Camarillo
has seen small but steady gains in home
inventory over the last 3 months. There were 252 homes on the market in
June, 252 in July, 260 in August and 265 in September. The
trend for home sales has remained flat with 78 homes selling in June, 78 in
July and a spike to 92 in August, followed by 79 home sales in September. The
number of days it takes to sell a single family home in Camarillo (DOM – Days
On Market) has remained between 75 to 79 days. This is a very stable almost
stale market.
Last
year we had a much smaller home inventory with 136 homes
on the market in June, 163 in July, 168 in August and back to 130 homes in
September. That was an average inventory of 150 homes for each of the summer
months in 2013 compared to just a little over 250 homes each summer month for
2014. We had more summer home sales in
2013 with sales peaking last July at 110 homes sold, then dropping back to
79 homes sold last September (which is coincidentally the same for September
2014 ). Demand in the summer of 2013 - DOM - was locked in at between 75 and 79
days on the market – about the same as 2014.
One of the interesting things comparing these two
summers is the fact that limited inventory last year brought about a very rapid
increase in home prices. Most sources quote 20% price increases by the end of
the summer in Camarillo last year. This year our home inventory has grown from
150 homes per month to about 250 homes. With the same DOM (demand), prices have
grown about 9% this year. So increased home inventory (supply), with the same
DOM (demand), has helped temper the increase in home prices for 2014 to half of
2013’s increase.
As I write this in the second week of October there
are 74 homes, condos and townhomes available for under $500,000 in Camarillo.
There are 194 homes currently listed for more than $500,000 in Camarillo. Only
40 homes are available in Camarillo for under $400,000, which is roughly 15% of
all the homes actively listed in our MLS. There are only 9 homes listed for
less than $300,000 and most of them are condos.
Obviously, with only 40 homes out of roughly 265
homes on our market available for under $400,000, first time home buyers are
not a large part of our market. This has huge implications for our local
economy and city demographics. Where will our young families live? Unless they
live in rentals or at home with their parents, there just isn’t going to be
much available they can afford. Most certainly, the great majority of first
time home buyers will be purchasing condos or townhomes since SFD are mostly
out of their reach.
The national average age for first time home buyers
is between the ages of 28 and 34. Echo Boomers are the largest demographic in
the US (Echo Boomers or Gen Y – the sons and daughters of the Baby Boomer
generation) with our household growth expected to increase by more than 1.25
million people annually for the next decade (according to a Harvard Study).
Echo Boomers are just now entering the age range for first time home buyers and
will continue to swell this sector for at least the next 10 years.
According to the National Association of Realtors =
NAR, first time home buyers presently comprise 37% of the market nationally.
Only 15% of homes in Camarillo are selling for less than $400,000. The national
median home price for first time home buyers is $155,000. Obviously, Camarillo
will not be attracting large numbers of first time home buyers. Those younger
families that do settle here will most likely be renting or living with
relatives.
On the other end of the demographic scale, the older
Baby Boomers are now beginning to retire. Many of these folks would like to downsize
and avoid many of the maintenance expenses and challenges that larger homes
present. They are often looking for simple one story homes without stairs to
challenge their later years. In 2009 the National Association of Home Builders
and the MetLife Mature Market Institute produced a study of Americans age 55
and older which indicated that these folks wanted to retire close to shopping
centers and medical facilities and prefer suburban living. The five most asked
for home amenities for this group were:
1) A
washer and dryer with the home.
2) Adequate
storage space
3) Windows
that open easily
4) A
master bedroom on the ground floor
5) A
thermostat that is easy to use.
The newest home building projects in Camarillo in
the lower price ranges feature high density, solar-powered multi story
townhomes or multi story rentals.
Village
Commons in Village at the Park – are 2 or 3 bedroom townhomes priced from
$474,990 to $519,990.
AMLI
Spanish Hills – 3 story rentals currently priced from
$1,796/month to $2,666/month.
D R Horton is currently developing the Somerset Tract in Village at the Park
which will feature 3 models of single family homes from roughly 3,000 sq ft and
3 bedrooms to just under 3,400 sq ft for a 4 bedroom home.
My point is that most of the new townhomes and
rentals are multi story adventures in vertical living, while the Somerset Tract
is obviously not going to be lower priced housing. If we assume that new
housing is pointing the way to new housing trends, I would hazard the statement
that current new home developments are not pointing the way for typical First
Time Home Buyers, Echo Boomers or aging Baby Boomers.
In Camarillo, younger first time home buyers will
probably be renters. Baby Boomers will have difficulty downsizing to new single
story homes since there really aren’t many available. Baby Boomers will need to
become familiar with older neighborhoods. Older neighborhoods still offer
single story homes, yards, and “thermostats that are easy to use.” I would also
hazard the statement that Camarillo is similar to most of the other cities of
Ventura County in these trends. New, relatively low cost, single story home
developments are like the mountain lion and the condor, facing extinction in Ventura County.
Just the way I see it,
Mark Thorngren
BRE
Lic #01413932
All data taken from VCCAR MLS or as quoted. Display
of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS. All
opinions are those of the author.
Additional blogs
found at http://markthorngren.blogspot.com/ or http://searchventurahomesinfo.blogspot.com/
